Right-Hand-Drive Electric Vehicle Market — Estimation

Although the current EV market appears to be focused on the left-handed markets of the United States, Europe and China, a significant number of Citizens of Earth reside in right-handed markets. Below is a summary of the right-hand-drive EV markets — estimates by Peter White, principal analyst at Rethink Energy.

Australia

As of early 2021 (12 months ago), there were only 14,000 electric vehicles on Australia’s roads. White expected Australia to add 7,000 EVs in 2021. This would still be only 0.8% of new vehicle sales. However, with 20,665 EVs sold in 2021, the market is changing faster than anyone expected, meaning electric cars now make up 1.95% of the new car market. State government initiatives will also increase dramatically and the impact is just beginning to show.

Thus, although Rethink Energy’s predictions are bolder than many in the industry (BNEF for example), they may still prove to be conservative as the future becomes the present.

Here are the numbers for my home state of Queensland. They may be small, but the trajectory of the graph is clear.

India

There are far more two wheelers and three wheelers in India than there are passenger cars, and the electrification of these ubiquitous vehicles is well advanced. However, as the quality of roads improves, the number of passenger cars is expected to increase.

As of early 2021, India had 51,500 EV passenger cars out of a fleet of around 32.4 million and 221 million two-wheelers.

White of Rethink Energy projects that India will get 5% of new cars as EVs by 2025, taking India overall to 50 lakh EV passenger vehicles. He expects 28% of new vehicles to be electric by 2030, more than 40% by 2040 and almost 100% by 2050.

United Kingdom

There are currently 688,000 EVs on UK roads.

White expects all new cars to be EVs by 2034 and no ICE vehicles on UK roads by 2041. It can happen even faster.

South Africa

There are only 3,645 passenger electric cars on South African roads, and new EV sales will increase by no more than 10% by 2026 and no more than 50% by 2032. By then, there will be one million EVs out of 10 on South African roads. One million. By 2043, ICE cars will no longer be sold, but they will remain on the roads before 2050.

Indonesia

Once again, this is a country whose roads are dominated by two wheelers and three wheelers. The numbers and % we have are for cars only.

By 2030, more than 50% of all new cars should be EVs, and by 2040, no more ICE cars will be sold. By 2050, 65% (17.26 million) of cars on Indonesian roads will be EVs or other zero-emissions cars, with the remaining 35% (9.4 million) being ICE vehicles.

Japan

Japan already has 357,000 EVs, but White expects to have 5.1 million EVs on Japan’s roads by 2030. 50% of all new cars sold as EVs in 2034 and ICE vehicles will be discontinued in 2040.

By 2050, the entire 66.8 million national fleet should be zero emissions.

New Zealand

Although New Zealand is a very small market (and not characterized in White’s report), it deserves a mention for its ambition to become Norway of the South Pacific and its plans to inspire the enthusiastic uptake of EVs by its citizens. About 10,000 BEVs and PHEVs were sold in New Zealand last year with the help of government subsidies. I expect New Zealand to reach 100% new car EV sales by the end of the decade.

So, Right-Hand-Drive EV Markets? It is expected that they will buy a large number of EVs in the next few years, especially if India can meet its potential.

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